Threats to Forestry
Introduction
Wood chip is the primary material required to make pulp, any threats to New Zealand’s forestry could negatively impact the Pulp industry. As of 2014 New Zealand has an estimated plantation stock of 1.75 million hectares of which 90% is Radiata pine, the main wood species used in the pulp process in New Zealand (Ministry for Primary Industries, 2014). When brainstorming as a team we identified the following potential threats to New Zealand’s plantation forests:
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Deforestation
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For both farming and urbanisation
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Diseases and pests
The pulp industry is already finding it more difficult to procure logs and this is a result from: sawmill technology improving, allowing them to process logs that previously were only good for pulp; the increased demand for export logs (D. Fox, Operations Manager Fibre Procurement Carter Holt Harvey Pulp and Paper, personal communication, September 03, 2015).
Deforestation
Deforestation can be broken into two main causes, creating available land for urbanisation and creating available land for farming. In a survey of large-scale plantation owners (owners with more than 10,000ha) planned deforestation for the next 10 years was approximately broken down into: 91% for dairy conversions, 6% for sheep and beef farms, and the remaining 3% for lifestyle/ residential land (Manley, 2015). Short terms projections (next 10 years) indicate a spike in the rate of deforestation in 2017 with an overall decreasing trend returning to 2015 levels by 2025 (approximately 8,000 ha/year), at a total of 67,000ha of the 10 years (Manley, 2015). Although these numbers are large this only accounts to 3.8% of our plantation forestry being lost to deforestation and doesn’t incorporate any land being converted into forestry.
Deforestation due to Urbanisation
New Zealand’s population is increasing and with it towns and cities require more land to house citizens. National population projections predict that in 2068 there is a 90% probability that our population will increase to somewhere between 5.28 and 7.17 million (MacPherson, National Population Projections: 2014(base)–2068, 2014). Subnational populations which medium term projections (next 28 years) indicate that the Auckland, Canterbury and Waikato regions will experience the greatest population growths (MacPherson, Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043, 2015). When looking at a forest location map (figures 1 and 2) its apparent that although some of the southern forestry in Northland may be at risk due to Auckland expansion the majority of plantation forestry is in area with low projected population growth and is away from major centres.
Although New Zealand’s population is increasing the cities and towns expected to experience high growth are not in locations that greatly threaten existing forestry plantations.
Figure 1: Planted Forest Land North Island
Sourced: (Ministry for Primary Industries, 2014)
Figure 2: Planted Forest Land South Island
Sourced: (Ministry for Primary Industries, 2014)
Deforestation due to Farming
The Dairy industry, and the meat industry are projected to be the highest and second highest (respectfully) export earners in New Zealand for the next four years (Ministry for Primary Industries, 2015). Currently there have been two main factors that have determined whether owners have converted forestry land:
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The dairy prices/ meat prices (Manley, 2015).
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Since implementation of the emissions trading act in 2008, the carbon tax applied to forest owners who were deforesting land that had been classed as forests before 1990 (Manley, 2015).
Members of the forestry sector see it as an un-level playing field with land values not expressing the true value of the land (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015), (D. Fox, Operations Manager Fibre Procurement Carter Holt Harvey Pulp and Paper, personal communication, September 03, 2015). Purposed changes to the emissions trading scheme will aim at applying a carbon tax at farm level for both the dairy and the meat industries (Ministry for the Environment, 2012). If this is implemented it may encourage some farmers to convert some of their land back into forest to offset some of the costs (Carbon Farming Group, 2010). A report which may support this prediction was done in 2008 and had a forecasted change in land use under the assumption of a $5 carbon price. This forecast (fig 3) indicated that the sheep and beef industry would suffer and instead of deforestation there would be some small gains in land being converted into forestry (Anastasiadis & Kerr, 2013). Another factor which may slow down forest to farm conversion is if farming is held more accountable for nitrate pollution something that has been considered in Waikato where there is a high concentration of dairy farming (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015). Deforestation due to farming is difficult to predict as its dependant on the current trading strength of the commodity produced in the environment and potentially will soon will be affected by carbon taxation eventually it would be likely that the rate of deforestation would decrease as the cost in converting to farmland becomes rather significant due to the carbon tax applied to deforestation (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015).
Figure 3: Forecasted Change in Land Use with a $5 Carbon Price Sourced: (Anastasiadis & Kerr, 2013)
Diseases and Pests
With New Zealand being an island nation it is harder for new diseases and pests to be introduced, that said we are not entirely immune. New Zealand has very tough bio security policies and procedures in place, however all it takes is one piece of contaminated material to be overlooked or someone to not declare it when importing it and then our plantation forestry could be facing a new disease or pest (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015). Already operating in New Zealand is the High Risk Site Surveillance (HRSS) program carried out by the Ministry for Primary Industries, which inspects ports (both sea and air) as well as high risk sites (such as large scale industrial project sites and first night campsites (for the risk introduced from overseas visitors)) for potential establishment of foreign organisms (Ministry for Primary Industries New Zealand, 2015). There’s also forestry research groups such as SCION who look at ways to mitigate and remove risks associated with biosecurity (SCION, 2009). This risk will increase over the next 50 years as international trade and tourism increase. The severity of the risk is elevated by the fact that approximately 90% of plantation forestry is Radiata Pine resulting in forestry stock without massive genetic immunity (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015). It also depends on:
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Time before detection and proper identification
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Location of infection. If it’s located in the Central North Island it could do more damage than in Canterbury as there is a higher percentage of our overall plantations planted there (Ministry for Primary Industries, 2014).
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The rate at which the pest/ disease can infect, which then depends on the vector (how it transmits its self) (Sathyapala, 2004).
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The current climate, the temperature in particular can affect reproduction rate/ survivability (Sathyapala, 2004).
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The methods available for controlling the pest/ disease. For example aerial spraying, pruning, species breeding to develop a tree with improved immunity to the threat.
One opinion was that if New Zealand were to face a significant new biological threat it could take up to ten years before we developed a strand of Radiata pine that was resilient or better equipped to deal with the threat. (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015). New Zealand has very strong approach to bio-security however there is always the risk of a biological threat entering our forests, a risk that has an increasing likelihood as tourism and international trade increase. The outcome of this occurring could result in less log availability with pulp mills having to pay more for wood fibre.
Conclusion
New Zealand will face potential threats both biological and from land use between now and 2070. How severe these threats depends on numerous factors such as:
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Type of biological threat, time before detection, current climate and required vectors for transition
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Location of significant population growth which could
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National and regional environmental policies, especially if there is an introduction of carbon tax to farming and if farming will be held accountable for nitrate pollution.
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The trading price of dairy, meat and forestry.
Foreign pests or disease although potentially devastating for our plantation forestry if left, is unlikely to ever actually damage our forestry stock due to the proactive detection and management of intrusions run by our Ministry of Primary Industries and forestry research groups such as SCION who are continually researching ways to improve detection and immunity to these threats.
Urbanisation is also unlikely to be a severe threat, if the medium term projections (now till 2043) hold true and continue to till 2070 then New Zealand will see major development in centres away from major forestry plantations. This is also seems likely as long term projections (now till 2068) indicate a slowing population growth with the potential for a decreasing population as 2060.
Farming could potential be a severe threat to plantation forestry if current environment policy remains the same. However with carbon tax becoming a global focus (especially with the participation of the united states and china) our current effort will look poor and if New Zealand wants to retains its green image it will have to start incorporating other industries under the emissions trading scheme (K. Richards, Environment Manager PF Olsen, personal communication, September 03, 2015). The introduction of farming to the emissions trading scheme may curb the current trend of deforestation and in the long term we may see some land being converted back into forestry.
Written by: James Batchelar